Pedersen estimates that the combined GGR equivalent of sweepstakes, prediction markets, card rips and advanced-deposit wagering will outstrip US iCasino this year

The combination of sweepstakes, card rips, prediction markets and advanced-deposit wagering is now generating more revenue than US iCasino, according to Swivel Gaming CEO Michael Pedersen.

Speaking on the NEXT.io Podcast, Pedersen put US iCasino on track for between $12bn and $13bn in annual GGR for 2026, compared to an equivalent of between $15bn and $20bn for the four emerging verticals that Swivel platforms.

Many in the industry wrote off sweepstakes for 2026, particularly after California turned away from the market, but the Swivel boss reiterates that these gambling industry adjacent sectors are “no longer a small niche in the corner”.

A tricky comparison

It is fundamentally difficult to compare all of these markets on an even keel, and Pedersen does not provide a full breakdown of the $15bn-$20bn estimate.

The rise of prediction markets, for instance, is undeniable, but revenue is generated via transaction fees.

This means that the huge and ever-increasing trade volume numbers that are widely shared each month are misleadingly large as a comparison with iCasino GGR, while the transaction fees are likely too small to give an accurate representation of the industry’s strength.

However, Pedersen’s confidence in the rapidly expanding sector remains a signal of the significant growth still to come.

Four against one

US iCasino is operational in eight states and generated over $6bn for H1, so a yearly figure topping $12bn is very possible.

In competing against all four of Pedersen’s named verticals, however, iCasino is both outnumbered and at a regulatory disadvantage.

Though sweeps have been squeezed out of some major US markets, having a legal status that sits outside of gambling means it and the other three categories can still operate in many states inaccessible to iGaming operators.

This shared moat makes them more lucrative as a whole. Individually, however, despite their advantages, none of the verticals comes close to the market size of iGaming.

The return of the sweep

Pedersen talks in terms of net purchases as a GGR equivalent to index the financial heft of his emerging verticals, and by this metric, sweeps may come closest to challenging US iCasino with a projected $6.5bn in net purchases for 2026 according to Eilers & Krejcik.

But the most intriguing thing for those considering the future of the sector is the direction of travel, and how the mood has changed.

Pedersen points out: “If you look at the latest numbers from Eilers & Krejcik from June, they originally had forecasted a decline of 26%. But as of June, they have actually reversed that trend and re-forecast it. So now looking at around about a 10% growth in net purchases year over year.”

Beyond growth in the US, within the coming weeks Swivel will be launching an Asia-facing sweepstake operator called Nanowin, and this seems to be an indicator for a wider internationalisation of the segment.

Pedersen notes that while the majority of value still comes from the US as of now, this could change in the near future.

He commented: “Right now, it’s probably 90% US and 10% international. I think when we sit here three years from now, I would say it’s going to be closer to 50/50.”

The newcomers

Sweepstakes’ pre-eminence among the figures provided by Pedersen is perhaps predictable, partly down to it having been around the longest and also because it offers users the most similar product to iCasino.

But observers should note the acceleration Pedersen has seen among the newer entrants, like card rips, although the data in this sector is necessarily more anecdotal, being the second-newest of the four. Pedersen explains that he has heard estimates of between $1bn and $3bn for the forecast annualised net purchases in card rips.

As for advanced deposit wagering, this will almost certainly be contributing the smallest amount to Pedersen’s estimations, but again he is clear on the trend, saying: “I definitely think it’s trending upwards.”

For all of the categories discussed by Pedersen, there are reasons to be optimistic about that continued upward trend – however, there is clearly also plenty of call for caution and reasons to be mindful that certain lawmakers in various states are always working to bring the regulatory hammer down on verticals such as these.

Swivel CEO Michael Pedersen explores the rapid expansion of emerging verticals in the US and beyond