Users have begun downloading DraftKings and FanDuel’s prediction markets apps across the US, but how do they compare to the market leaders?
Users have begun downloading DraftKings and FanDuel’s prediction markets apps across the US, but how do they compare to the market leaders?
This week saw the launch of both DraftKings and FanDuel’s highly anticipated prediction markets apps in non-gaming states across the US, as the companies face the most serious challenge to their sports betting duopoly since the overturning of PASPA.
It comes amid an unprecedented surge in investment in the prediction markets space, which has seen all different kinds of businesses – including gaming, finance and media – look to cash in on the growing craze.
Many observers have already highlighted the situation feels eerily similar to the post-2018 online sports betting landgrab, which saw gaming businesses of all kinds attempt to launch, almost all of which failed.
Indeed, executives at FanDuel and DraftKings are no doubt fearing they will play the role of the land-based operators prior to online legalisation, which failed to successfully dominate the new verticals despite formidable incumbent advantages.
Whether the OSB giants’ prediction markets apps represent a failed rearguard action or successful parry will depend to a great extent on whether players are actually using them.
Citizens highlights DraftKings Predictions ‘solid start’
Analysts at Citizens yesterday (23 December) issued a report on app download activity in the US, noting DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predict mark the 11th and 12th such platforms to go live in the US, with another 14 looking to launch soon.
The analysts said: “The DraftKings app was downloaded 34k times in the last four days, which we view as a solid start, and FanDuel launched in its five states with a greater expansion coming in the next several weeks.”
DraftKings and FanDuel so far represent 6% and 2% of prediction markets app downloads, which serves as a decent base for future growth.
However, Kalshi still dominates the market – representing 64% of all downloads in the 16th week of the NFL.
This compares to the 18% recorded for Polymarket, Crypto.com’s 8% and the 1% total for Novig, which has been attempting to make exchange betting work in the US for longer than any of its competitors.
The analysts added: “Kalshi downloads also exceeded 300k for the third consecutive week, highlighting that the momentum is not slowing with record volume over the weekend.
“As we have previously noted, Kalshi is beginning to get more aggressive around marketing through online platforms like TikTok and a marketing agreement with the Chicago Blackhawks (NHL), the first professional team partnership across the space.”
With DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s entrance into the space causing damage to their carefully repaired relationships with tribal leaders, swallowing up investment that could go towards their core products, and putting increased regulatory strain on their state licences, top executives will be more than keen to make the venture a success.