Super Bowl LX is thought to have delivered a largely positive result for sportsbooks, thanks to a score tally that was contrary to the public’s betting habits.
Despite favourites the Seattle Seahawks securing a strong victory against the New England Patriots, the match’s initial opening, strategic line movement, and a lacklustre offensive performance all contributed to a result that was unfavourable for a large number of bettors.
The Seahawks were favoured by 3-3.5 points right after the conference championships. By kickoff, all sportsbooks had moved the spread to Seattle -4.5, with a few opening -5.5.
The opening total for over/under bets was 46.5, which fell to 44.5 or 45.5, where it closed. The final score total of 42 meant the under cashed across the board.
Seattle also closed as a -235 moneyline favourite after opening closer to -155, a significant shift that still failed to deter higher-value wagers on the favourite.
From a sportsbook performance standpoint, the game script proved critical. A 9-0 halftime score and a 12-0 margin through three quarters suppressed scoring-related prop outcomes and neutralised a large portion of public wagering volume.
Low-scoring Super Bowls historically disrupt public betting patterns, which tend to favour overs and affirmative outcomes across player and novelty props.
Despite a 30-point fourth quarter, the late scoring surge did little to salvage most prop positions or push the total over its reduced threshold. There were only four total touchdowns the entire game, keeping the exposure to props low.
Ups and downs for bettors
Still, several bettors won big on straight bets. BetMGM had one customer who bet $50,000 on Seattle to win the Super Bowl in August at +6000 odds. He collected his winnings of $3m and walked away.
He also had futures bets on Seattle to win the NFC conference and to make the playoffs, which paid off as well.
The distribution of bets overall was thought to be favourable to the sportsbook.
According to information shared with NEXT.io by BetMGM, Seattle had 31% of the tickets written on the moneyline but 57% of the total handle, meaning high-stakes players bet heavily on the team.
However, Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager for BetMGM, said: “Super Bowl bettors cashed in on the Seahawks covering. The under hitting and only four touchdowns being scored was a great result for us.”
On the spread, Seattle -4.5 had 59% of the tickets and 53% of the handle. The under had 55% of the tickets and half of the handle.
Other sportsbooks reported similar dynamics. Caesars Sportsbook accepted multiple six-figure wagers on Seattle, including a $200,000 bet on the Seahawks to cover -4.5.
Those tickets paid, but were offset by losses elsewhere, including a $1m moneyline wager on New England at +200 accepted by Circa Sports.
Caesars also reported its single largest payout on a novelty market, with one customer winning more than $245,000 on the coin toss landing heads.
A Texan entrepreneur and business owner who ties betting to sales in his stores, Jim McIngvale, did not have a good day. Known by most as Mattress Mack, he had placed a $2m bet on the Patriots to win.
Prediction markets fuel betting activity
Beyond traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets continued to expand their footprint. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket facilitated nationwide participation despite sports betting remaining illegal in several large states.
Kalshi reported more than $161m in trading volume on its Super Bowl LX market by the Tuesday before the game, with nearly 70% of traders backing Seattle.
The volume represented a more than sixfold increase over its Super Bowl market activity the prior year.
Kalshi’s broader growth metrics underscored the challenge these platforms pose to the established betting sector.
The app was downloaded 3 million times in January, surpassing the growth rates of DraftKings and FanDuel during their peak expansion periods.
Kalshi reportedly processed $871m in total volume on Super Bowl Sunday alone, according to Dustin Gouker and his The Closing Line substack. This figure could have exceeded $1bn in a closer game.
The rapidly expanding presence of alternative wagering models continues to draw regulatory scrutiny, with ongoing legal disputes likely to shape their long-term role in the betting ecosystem.
Looking ahead, sportsbooks are already turning their attention to upcoming high-handle events.
March Madness has shown consistent year-on-year growth in betting, with combined men’s and women’s tournament handle rising from $2.3bn in 2023 to a reported $3.1bn last year.
Beyond that, the 2026 World Cup looms as a global wagering milestone.
The previous tournament generated an estimated $18-20bn in handle without broad US legal participation, suggesting a materially higher ceiling under the current regulatory landscape.