US-focused research and advisory firm expects around $31.7bn to be wagered on the NFL via sportsbooks, compared to $8.4bn on prediction markets

Sportsbooks are forecast to account for almost 80% of NFL wagering this season despite the rapid growth of prediction markets, according to research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).

The US-focused advisory firm estimated approximately $40.1bn will be wagered on the NFL during the 2026 season. Of this, it suggested around $31.7bn will be from traditional, regulated sportsbooks, compared with $8.4bn via prediction markets.

Should this be the case, it would represent a 79%-21% split in favour of sportsbooks, despite what EKG described as “soaring valuations” around prediction market operators.

Going into more detail, EKG forecast that NFL bets on sportsbook will increase 8% year-on-year. This, it said, would be ahead of 5% underlying handle growth across the whole OSB market, excluding the impact of the 2026 Fifa World Cup. 

The company also highlighted how a more “aggressive” customer acquisition backdrop is helping drive NFL betting growth. It noted welcome offers from some of the leading names in the US market, including a $365 headline bonus from bet365 and $350 offers from both FanDuel and Fanatics.

Also on customer acquisition, EKG said DraftKings and FanDuel have hinted that they could be more generous with their bonuses. DraftKings’ headline offer of $200 lags behind rival brands, but the operator could still increase spend in this area.

Prediction markets a ‘meaningful second channel’ for NFL

Despite forecasts suggesting a dominant share for traditional sportsbooks, EKG believes there is still room for prediction markets. It said the latter represents a “meaningful second channel” for NFL wagering but is “small on a relative scale”.

This, it added, reflects a relatively new sector with a smaller installed base. As such, EKG said those in the prediction markets space are not able to be as generous with bonuses. For example, it highlighted how Kalshi’s best bonus at the time of writing was just $25.

However, EKG also acknowledged reports that prediction markets are spending “heavily” on digital marketing. With this covering areas such as app stores and PPC, this, EKG explained, could make its own forecast “look light by the end of the season”.

Kalshi data highlights appetite for longshot parlays

Separate data from Event Horizon on Kalshi’s parlay activity also pointed to an appetite for increasingly complex bets. More than a quarter of parlays recorded over the most recent weekend contained 11 or more legs.

EKG calculated that, assuming a relatively low 2.5% margin per leg, an 11-leg parlay would generate an expected margin of 24.3%. At a 4% margin per leg, that figure would rise to around 40%.

This highlighted the potentially lucrative economics of longshot parlays, with margins rising sharply as more legs are added.