Analysts attribute the shift to rising trading volumes and deeper market participation, while competition among liquidity providers has also intensified

Kalshi offered better prices than DraftKings and FanDuel during the opening week of the 2026 NFL season, a swap of positions from the same time a year ago.

Citizens JMP Securities analysts Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin tracked odds across 28 data points covering moneyline bets and totals on Friday 11 September. The prediction market’s implied vig came in 3% lower than FanDuel’s and 4% lower than DraftKings’.

Kalshi’s implied pricing for Week 1 stood at 4.32%, while FanDuel posted 4.44% and DraftKings came in at 4.51%. The gap marks a notable shift from last season, when Kalshi trailed both sportsbooks by 30 to 40 basis points.

The turnaround did not happen overnight. Citizens tracked pricing through college basketball’s March Madness and the FIFA World Cup earlier this year. In both events, Kalshi led DraftKings and FanDuel by 30 to 40 basis points.

The analysts attribute the shift to rising trading volumes and deeper market participation. Competition among liquidity providers has intensified too, they say.

That dynamic, the report argues, is becoming self-reinforcing. Tighter spreads attract more trading activity. More activity then improves liquidity further, pushing prices down again.

Not every corner of Kalshi’s book looks as competitive, though, with parlay and combo pricing telling a different story. Kalshi’s implied vig on combined favourite and over bets reached 23.8% in Week 1. That compares with 22.0% at both DraftKings and FanDuel, before transaction fees are applied.

Kalshi charged an average fee of $1.62 per 100 contracts across the tracked markets, with takers generally paying while market makers often receive reduced or waived fees.

Sportsbooks not threatened by prediction markets

The findings carry weight beyond pure pricing mechanics. Citizens JMP’s separate analysis of customer wallets points to three trends worth watching.

First, cannibalisation of regulated sports betting by prediction markets is not worsening and may be easing. This contrasts with the American Gaming Association, which asserted in August that prediction markets are hurting regulated sportsbook revenue.

Second, wallets appear to be splitting between the two channels, suggesting the overall pool of betting dollars is growing rather than simply shifting.

Third, new customer acquisition costs and operational missteps, rather than prediction markets themselves, are weighing on sportsbook handle.

Citizens views Kalshi as primarily drawing players who might otherwise bet offshore. That, the company argues, is why it poses little threat to customers of regulated sports-betting apps.

Citizens expects regulated sportsbook handle to accelerate in the fourth quarter. That reflects easier comparisons against last year’s initial wave of prediction market adoption, favourable sports outcomes in late 2025, and mistakes by the market leader, which controls roughly a third of US wagering.

The company also maintains that betting exchanges pose no meaningful threat to incumbent operators’ profitability. Its coverage includes DraftKings, Flutter Entertainment, MGM Resorts, PENN Entertainment and Rush Street Interactive, all rated Market Outperform except for MGM, which carries a Market Perform rating.